ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Friday, October 08, 2004


a nation divisible

pollwatching is an awful pastime -- rather like market watching, one is often hypnotized but learning nothing. the noise-to-signal ratio in the fluctuations of percentage points from day to day is extremely high, of course. it leads one to the terrible deterministic habit of associating every random hiccup with something that someone said or heard or did, when in fact it most often isn't due to anything at all.

and yet... polling report's synopsis has become a pathetic but necessary stopping point on my internet travels. now that the bounces that follow each convention are over (they typically last 3-4 weeks, and this go-round was no exception) we are back to Square One -- today's economist/yougov poll has kerry by a single point over bush in a dead heat.

it comforts me to no end to know that the only important political office in the country will be allocated based on the opinions of people who, despite all that has happened in the last four years, can't make up their mind -- and won't, in many cases, until they're confronted with a ballot.

these are the same people you wait in line behind at the grocery store who -- despite having carried it all the way to the checkout, probably having set it down a couple times on the way there and then having picked it back up -- still can't decide whether or not they *really* want that bag of oreos. reassuring, hm?

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