Monday, November 22, 2004
but sometimes one does encounter events in which the probability of a certain outcome is so large relative to all other probabilities that forecasting the likely outcome of an event is something that can be reasonably done.
with a still greater degree of certainty, one can view the absurd points of view vis-a-vis such events and discredit them with a high degree of reliability. (for this reason, it is usually far easier to be a critic than a forecaster.)
i found the iraq war to be one such event -- and so did others. the agitator takes a look back at what the sensible lot at cato had to say prior to the war, and what our elected leaders had to offer.
but it must be remembered that the vast majority of americans believed virtually everything the white house said about what would transpire in iraq in the weeks leading up to the invasion -- proving again the gullible stupidity of the mob.
recognizing the mob is the first step toweard avoiding it -- and it's a step 90% of people never think to take, especially in a plebiscitarian age when many have deluded themselves into believing that the herd mentality is somehow wise.
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