ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Monday, November 01, 2004

 

no saving


it's hard to deny that the united states' economy is dependent on consumerism -- fully 2/3 of economic activity has to do with personal consumption of some kind or another. the state of personal balance sheets is a topic central to the economic health of the nation.

it's then amazing and discouraging news that personal income growth is still being outstripped by spending, indicating yet ever more household debt is being accumulated within the system.

when interest rates eventually begin to rise, this debt stands to cripple millions with debt service payments they hadn't counted on -- and, perhaps worse, catch banks overleveraged and in a yield trap that they can't (and some won't) escape.


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