ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Monday, November 01, 2004

 

predictions, round two


round one

the more i read, the more convinced i am that this election is anything but a tossup: it's a decided kerry victory.

princeton's meta-analysis compounds electoral-vote.com's prediction page to show a significant electoral margin for kerry. pollingreport.com's head-to-head, which shows bush polling less and less recently -- as little as 45% -- and even gallup's bush-biased poll showing 49% (the least all along).

early returns from florida are very pro-kerry -- get-out-the-vote efforts usually have little effect, but this is a particularly polarized election year.

in the end, i have to think that the election will largely go according to hoyle and the president will not pick up undecideds at a significant rate.

kerry 320 bush 218 -- with PA, OH, FL, WI, IA, MN and CO (closely!) all swinging to kerry

kerry 50.8% bush 47.5%

there's only going to be a round three if i'm terribly wrong and we're hanging on chads come wednesday.

make your own map/count at the la times site (flash and free registration req'd).
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The Gaius Marius 2004 Presidential Election Watching Guide:

6pm
-- if NH goes bush, that could be an early sign of a republican night; is VA goes kerry, it'll be a kerry landslide.

prediction: kerry 3, bush 55 -- BUSH VICTORY: bush 55 minimum

6:30pm -- first of The Big Three, OH looks close, but a kerry victory in this traditional republican state could be the beginning of the end for W.

prediction: kerry 23, bush 60 -- BUSH VICTORY: bush 80 for comfortable win, 60 minimum

7pm -- kerry could virtually end it here with the rest of The Three, FL and PA -- if he takes The Big Three, bush is finished; on the other hand, democratic NJ has been closer than expected, and if bush wins two of The Three and NJ, he's doing very well.

prediction: kerry 150, bush 110 -- BUSH VICTORY: bush 197 for comfortable win, 135 minimum

7:30pm -- AR has been bush's to lose; if kerry wins, it's probably been over for a while already.

prediction: kerry 150, bush 131 -- BUSH VICTORY: 156 minimum

8pm -- MI, MN, WI, CO, NM all close; CO is a tossup, but if the issue is still in doubt, a kerry loss in any of those four others would be a major blow.

prediction: kerry 236, bush 195 -- BUSH VICTORY: 234 minimum -- if he doesn't have this by now, it's very likely over

9pm -- IA closes the midwest, probably for kerry. if kerry is really doing well, NV could go for him.

prediction: kerry 250, bush 208

10pm -- the CA whale comes in for kerry; if bush is winning, he could get WA and HI.

prediction: kerry 320, bush 215

12am -- AK comes in for bush to finish the scoring.

prediction: kerry 320, bush 218


Does the weather help Bush?

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tropical/map_spectrop04_ltst_6nh_enus_600x405.jpg

It is raining throughout the East. Especially in OHIO. From Cleveland to Cincy it looks like rain for most of the day. I just spoke with a friend of mine in Columbus, OH who said the voting lines were long this morning around 7:00. By 7:45 they had dwindled.

 
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