ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Monday, November 01, 2004


predictions, round two

round one

the more i read, the more convinced i am that this election is anything but a tossup: it's a decided kerry victory.

princeton's meta-analysis compounds's prediction page to show a significant electoral margin for kerry.'s head-to-head, which shows bush polling less and less recently -- as little as 45% -- and even gallup's bush-biased poll showing 49% (the least all along).

early returns from florida are very pro-kerry -- get-out-the-vote efforts usually have little effect, but this is a particularly polarized election year.

in the end, i have to think that the election will largely go according to hoyle and the president will not pick up undecideds at a significant rate.

kerry 320 bush 218 -- with PA, OH, FL, WI, IA, MN and CO (closely!) all swinging to kerry

kerry 50.8% bush 47.5%

there's only going to be a round three if i'm terribly wrong and we're hanging on chads come wednesday.

make your own map/count at the la times site (flash and free registration req'd).

The Gaius Marius 2004 Presidential Election Watching Guide:

-- if NH goes bush, that could be an early sign of a republican night; is VA goes kerry, it'll be a kerry landslide.

prediction: kerry 3, bush 55 -- BUSH VICTORY: bush 55 minimum

6:30pm -- first of The Big Three, OH looks close, but a kerry victory in this traditional republican state could be the beginning of the end for W.

prediction: kerry 23, bush 60 -- BUSH VICTORY: bush 80 for comfortable win, 60 minimum

7pm -- kerry could virtually end it here with the rest of The Three, FL and PA -- if he takes The Big Three, bush is finished; on the other hand, democratic NJ has been closer than expected, and if bush wins two of The Three and NJ, he's doing very well.

prediction: kerry 150, bush 110 -- BUSH VICTORY: bush 197 for comfortable win, 135 minimum

7:30pm -- AR has been bush's to lose; if kerry wins, it's probably been over for a while already.

prediction: kerry 150, bush 131 -- BUSH VICTORY: 156 minimum

8pm -- MI, MN, WI, CO, NM all close; CO is a tossup, but if the issue is still in doubt, a kerry loss in any of those four others would be a major blow.

prediction: kerry 236, bush 195 -- BUSH VICTORY: 234 minimum -- if he doesn't have this by now, it's very likely over

9pm -- IA closes the midwest, probably for kerry. if kerry is really doing well, NV could go for him.

prediction: kerry 250, bush 208

10pm -- the CA whale comes in for kerry; if bush is winning, he could get WA and HI.

prediction: kerry 320, bush 215

12am -- AK comes in for bush to finish the scoring.

prediction: kerry 320, bush 218

Does the weather help Bush?

It is raining throughout the East. Especially in OHIO. From Cleveland to Cincy it looks like rain for most of the day. I just spoke with a friend of mine in Columbus, OH who said the voting lines were long this morning around 7:00. By 7:45 they had dwindled.

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