Wednesday, February 21, 2007
yet more on recession
What makes it noteworthy is that this Fed index (of industrial production) has been languishing for a while, and is now below its value of six months ago. That, too, can sometimes be benign. We saw a 6-month low in September 2005 after Hurricane Katrina, and in the anemic recovery of 2003. But a 6-month-decline in the index is something that is often associated with the early stages of an economic recession.
from a contrarian viewpoint, seeing published economists recant predictions of recession in an environment of ever-more troubling data is a bad sign.