ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Wednesday, February 21, 2007


yet more on recession

predicting recession has temporarily gone out of fashion -- becoming even the object of ridicule in plebiscitarian publications -- but difficult data continues to emerge.

What makes it noteworthy is that this Fed index (of industrial production) has been languishing for a while, and is now below its value of six months ago. That, too, can sometimes be benign. We saw a 6-month low in September 2005 after Hurricane Katrina, and in the anemic recovery of 2003. But a 6-month-decline in the index is something that is often associated with the early stages of an economic recession.

from a contrarian viewpoint, seeing published economists recant predictions of recession in an environment of ever-more troubling data is a bad sign.


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