ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

 

history of consumer confidence


the latest from the conference board regarding consumer sentiment:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had dipped in June, rebounded in July. The Index now stands at 112.6 (1985=100), up from 105.3 in June. The Present Situation Index increased to 139.2 from 129.9 in June. The Expectations Index rose to 94.8 from 88.8.


that means the differential i track here went from (-41.1) to (-44.4). these are modest improvements from the march low.

the level of this measure has gone thusly, taking the revised figures from the following month report (except in the current month reading, of course):

monthpresentfuturedifferential
july 2007 139.2 94.8 (-44.4)
june 2007 129.9 88.8 (-41.1)
may 2007 136.1 90.1 (-46.0)
april 2007 133.5 88.2 (-45.3)
march 2007 138.5 87.9 (-50.6)
february 2007 137.1 93.8 (-43.3)
january 2007 133.9 94.4 (-39.5)
december 2006 130.5 96.3 (-34.2)
november 2006 125.4 91.9 (-33.5)
october 2006 125.1 91.9 (-33.2)
september 2006 128.3 91.0 (-37.3)
august 2006 123.9 84.4 (-39.5)
june 2006 132.2 87.5 (-44.7)
may 2006 134.1 85.1 (-49.0)
april 2006 136.2 92.3 (-43.9)
march 2006 133.3 90.3 (-43.0)
february 2006 130.3 84.2 (-46.1)
january 2006 128.8 92.1 (-36.7)
december 2005 120.7 92.6 (-28.1)
november 2005 113.2 88.4 (-24.8)
october 2005 107.8 70.1 (-37.7)
september 2005 110.4 72.3 (-38.1)
august 2005 123.8 93.3 (-30.5)
july 2005 119.3 93.2 (-26.1)
june 2005 120.8 96.4 (-24.4)
may 2005 117.8 93.4 (-24.4)
april 2005 113.8 86.7 (-27.1)
march 2005 117.0 93.7 (-23.3)
february 2005 116.8 96.1 (-20.7)
january 2005 112.1 100.4 (-11.7)
december 2004 105.7 100.7 (-5.0)
november 2004 90.2 96.3 6.1
october 2004 92.2 94.0 1.8
september 2004 97.7 95.3 (-2.4)
august 2004 100.7 97.3 (-3.4)
july 2004 105.3 106.4 1.1
june 2004 100.8 105.9 5.1
may 2004 90.5 94.8 4.3
may 2004 90.5 94.8 4.3
april 2004 90.4 94.8 4.4
march 2004 84.4 91.3 6.9
march 2004 84.4 91.3 6.9
february 2004 83.3 91.9 8.6
january 2004 79.4 107.8 28.4
december 2003 74.3 103.3 29.0
november 2003 81.0 100.1 19.1
october 2003 67.0 91.5 24.5
september 2003 59.7 88.5 28.8
august 2003 62.0 94.9 32.9
july 2003 63.0 86.3 23.3
june 2003 64.2 96.4 32.2
may 2003 67.3 94.5 27.2
april 2003 75.2 84.8 9.6
march 2003 61.4 61.4 0.0
february 2003 63.5 65.7 2.2
february 2003 63.5 65.7 2.2
january 2003 75.3 81.1 5.8
december 2002 69.6 88.1 18.5
november 2002 78.3 89.3 11.0
october 2002 77.2 81.1 3.9
september 2002 88.5 97.2 8.7
august 2002 93.1 95.5 2.4
july 2002 99.4 96.1 (-3.3)
june 2002 104.9 107.2 2.3
may 2002 111.2 109.7 (-1.5)
april 2002 106.8 109.6 2.8
march 2002 111.5 110.2 (-1.3)
february 2002 96.4 94.0 (-2.4)
january 2002 98.1 97.6 (-0.5)
december 2001 97.8 92.4 (-5.4)
november 2001 96.2 77.3 (-18.9)
october 2001 93.5 n/a n/a
september 2001 125.4 78.1 (-47.3)
august 2001 125.0 79.2 (-45.8)
july 2001 151.3 92.9 (-58.4)


by this measure, we're potentially in a cyclical position now similar to that seen in 2001.

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