ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Wednesday, August 29, 2007


here's a fun chart

from dealbreaker:


there are all sorts of problems with making these comparisons. are there similarities to 1987? yes -- but there are similarities between 1987 and any liquidity squeeze, and they don't all involve a 23% down day. much as with my awesome china/nasdaq chart, there are a lot of things that can go differently too.

of course, sometimes this shit is informative. i saw several nikkei-nasdaq charts in 1999 and, sure enough, the bubble popped. (so will china's.) i do think that markets are fractal and patterns within the markets echo. but one must conceive of limits in the utility of such simple comparisons. this is a good example. first chart -- scary! so similar! second chart -- best used to demonstrate that different events are in fact different.


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