ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

 

preconditions of a housing turnaround


this is very tentative -- but some housing skeptics are finding at least mildly less critical things to say.

first robert shiller -- seeing signs of strength in some areas, but not bullish.

then calculated risk.

Right now it appears housing is about to take another significant downturn.

But someday housing will bottom.

And I'm starting to see the first signs - not of a bottom - but that it might be worth looking ahead to the bottom. Blasphemy to some, I'm sure.

... To repeat: I expect housing to be crushed in the coming months. But it might be time to start looking ahead to the bottom in residential investment.


very far indeed from optimism, cr is looking for an existing homes price bottom in 2010-12, which comports pretty well with what i've seen elsewhere. but a bottom for the builders in terms of residential investment may come as soon as 2008.

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