ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Thursday, November 08, 2007

 

being pushed off the stage


andrew sullivan mulls the apparent decline in the perceived importance of iraq. the presumption is that the polled masses are seeing the surge as an improvement -- either because there has been improvement or they've been successfully marketed again -- and voting accordingly.

i have a different view. i think a growing number of people in the united states are increasingly worried about what's going on at home -- particularly the housing market and all that may come from it -- and are recatagorizing iraq, shoving it into the back seat and justifying it to themselves by telling themselves that it's going better and doesn't merit their concern anymore.

and i imagine still others are hearing the drumbeat over iran and believing what the administration is saying about it -- and thereby rerationalizing iraq to make a significant military move against iran plausible in their fantasy if not in reality.

both views are wrong -- particularly when one considers what kind of foundation the surge is built on. iraq is and will remain a cauldron of regional if not global disaster for many years, and american forces will remain overwhelmed with their task there.

but the presumption of a rational causality behind this turn in polling attributes, to my way of thinking, far too much credit to the reasoning power of the american public, which has proved time and again to be basically befert of any.

Labels: , , , , ,



This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?