ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Thursday, November 15, 2007


going long

closed the last short and opened tentative longs in ultra nasdaq 100 and ultra s&p 500 on november 13. today's closing data -- particularly in revisiting the recent low -- shows fewer new lows in the s&p and in the nasdaq 100 on each push down. this was most pronounced earliest on the 20-day timeframe, but is now clear on the 65-day and 250-day frames as well. volumes in the s&p (net points, net volume, net advancers) do not yet reflect a bottom but neither do they show significant deterioration in the last four days. percentage of issues trading over 10dma is also improving in the s&p. tick and ticq moving averages are also improving. coming on the heels of a 90% upside day on november 14, this is all saying "buy".

it barely seems possible to me that a significant rally could emerge from this financial carnage. but i have to trade the charts. to be certain, i'll be quick with the trigger to back out of these rallies (if they are rallies) on signs of faltering strength.

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Good evening, Sir. I was blogging for opinions on the recent market malaise and I noticed your Elliot Wave sense. I like your idea to go long whilst most every trader prepares his revolver. If we officially had a 90% upside day, then you are correct to go long. If we violate the lows of August on a closing basis (12,845 on the Dow), we would be in an official bear. That would be time for QID, SDS, and DXD. Good luck to you, Sir.

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