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Saturday, November 10, 2007


michigan sentiment nears 15-year low

barry ritholtz at big picture notes the sharp falloff in comsumer sentiment in the university of michigan survey by saying that the index is approaching a two-year low.

and that is true, as the index hit a lower low in the katrina aftermath.

but what he leaves out is, first, that the post-katrina low was the lowest reading since the last recession in 1990-1991 -- and second, that such dramatic falls are usually the final puzzle piece in the onset of recession.

it's here.

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