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Thursday, November 08, 2007

 

probably not a durable bottom


a high-volume hammer reversal of sorts in some of the indexes today and definitely from overbought levels in those which reversed -- but is it a bottom of the sort we saw on august 16? probably not. here's my case.

looking at the 65-day lows, we can see lows are still expanding, as are highs diminishing. moreover, lows not reached critical levels. there is, however, nascent strength in the issues near new highs.

the 20-day picture shows a bit more evidence of a local low in place.

cum net points may be a data error -- not sure yet. but net volume and advance/decline are leading lower following their resolute non-confirm of the early october all-time-high test. clearly, participation is at oversold levels, but a retest here over the next several days would be typical. indeed, given the new lows in advance/decline, the possibility of new reaction lows is not negligible.

in the s&p 65-days, there are still expanding lows as well, and not to critical levels yet either.

20-days are a good tell for short-term bottoms, but there isn't a lot here yet to indicate a real turn up.

net volume is quite poor again, but there is some encouragement in advance/declines. as of yet, there's been no 90% up day, either -- a point mentioned in today's newsletter as well as a condition of a sustainable reversal and advance.

the inability of the volumes to give much indication of strengthening is a big part of the reason i held on short from august 16 to today. i considered then and have since that it indicated a probable return to these levels for a retest. it was somewhat myopic on my part -- not considering the russell and iyf indexes as downside leadership, which were showing a successful retest at those levels.





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