ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

 

and now for something completely different


A BOUNCE! call me crazy, but with the banks up 8% there's a ton of short-covering afoot to propel the rocket. and someone is exiting treasuries as well -- the yield up to 3.42% from under 3.30% this morning! this is what every long wants to see off a probe.

what next? i'd still suggest that a 5-15% shot in the s&p off the bottom is probable, if in fact this is the floor, and it might take just a day or two to get there. something like s&p 1378 to 1440 -- and note the moving averages for resistance as well: 21sma @ 1415 and falling (+5.8% from today's close of 1338) and 50sma @ 1440 (+7.6%). in the NDX, 21sma @ 1985 (+11% from 1790) and both the 50sma and 200sma @ 2025 (+13%).

then, at some point after that if all goes according to plan, a revisitation of the lows or worse. there is some possibility of a spike bottom here too -- but, as was seen in 2000 and 2001, not to mention august 2007, those don't generally hold for the long run.

afraid to trade mentions that the sectors one wants to see advance are advancing and today did so in size -- but short-covering is probably the majority of the buying here, as short interest in these sectors is surely massive.

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