ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Thursday, January 17, 2008


my belly hurts

as my daughter would say.

dr. steenbarger says what i would say -- improving TICK, divergent new lows against january 9 (20-, 65- and 250-day, nasdaq too, but particularly noticably in the nasdaq 100), very washed out ISEE sentiment, very washed out AAII sentiment, TRIN spike, low participation vs longer term moving averages (he notes the 200-day, also the 50-day) coincident with rising participation against shorter moving averages (i follow the 10-day of the s&p 500 and nasdaq 100), and now even a significant (18.1%) one-day up move in the VXO.

moreover, the ten-year yield has put in one of the greatest 14-day collapses in 50 years -- now down 13.3%, exceeded only at the aforementioned points.

it might go a bit further. i've tracked issues trading over their 150-day, and normally a big bottom coincides with 12% or so -- it's currently 17% in the s&p, 19% in the ndx.

but nothing's as good as old fashioned belly pain for a tell. that kind of capitulative emotion is being felt all around.

i'm stupid (and being unfairly punished! lol) to have ended up trying to catch the falling knife, but i surely would not initiate a short here. for what it's worth, s&p 1320-1325 should provide support.


my daughter would say that too, lol.

Hey, thanks for coming by and contributing to the Live chat. Much much appreciatated, your stuff was great.

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my pleasure, adam -- commiserating in the quality crowd you draw is really time well spent. :)

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