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Friday, February 22, 2008

 

comparing this rally to past examples


the biggest technical reason, in my opinion, to think a bottom is in place as of january 22/23 is the new annual low spike that took place on the 22nd. i took a look at past examples on january 10 as the indicator started to reach high levels.

so how has the price movement compared to past examples? sluggishly, through the first 21 days. the s&p closed last night 5.4% over its intraday low of the 22nd, having peaked at about 9.5% on february 1. this is most comparable to past instances in 1990, 1996 and is particularly similar to the 1998 pattern.

what might that mean going forward? of course we're speaking anecdotally -- this is and will remain a unique instance in spite of any technical qualitative similarities to the past. but expanding the window out to 50 days for these past examples, there's indication of further testing to come.

at this juncture, i haven't really seen the kind of deterioration in indicators that would lead me to believe that a retest is really imminent -- but such retests can surprise.

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