Thursday, February 14, 2008
still pointing positive
first the nasdaq 100. new lows and highs less lows show a really positive retest of the january 22/23 low. issues near new highs are leading price as well, although actual new highs haven't broken out. this is a good-looking picture of a retest.
i've been messing around with dr. steenbarger's ideas about volatility envelopes, which i consider a really interesting idea. so far, the indicator looks very useful -- and straightforwardly bullish.
the net points, issues and volumes give some pause -- they could be indicating more dowside left to come. but there's more evidence still here of increasing participation as issues over 30dma is leading price. mcclellan oscillator also looks really good, with the summation coming off a very low level. note too that february 13 was a 90% upside day in the nasdaq 100 by my data -- things are looking up here.
nwo the s&p. less bullish, more tepid. no real outstanding divergences, except possibly near-highs leading price. but no outstanding bearish signs either.
this looks more positive, though one cna argue from here that the divergence in supply is very short (two days, january 22 and 23) and insuficient. but supply improved considerably on the turn down to 1320, even though that wasn't a proper retest.
because of the shallowness of the 1320 "test", volumes of all stripes are at least mediocre -- no leading divergences, but no breakdowns short-term. no 90% days either. but participation again is growing and the oscillator looks bullish.
sentiment, as previously noted, is about as bollocks up as could be by many measures.