ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Tuesday, March 18, 2008


probably not

i was having a pretty good morning until i saw this on the newsstand. i'm sure i don't need to recapitulate the entire history of the magazine cover indicator, and it's enough to note that it isn't perfect (see the continuation of big picture's chart). but it isn't for nothing that you want to fade the crowd -- and whether editors are leading the sheep or adroitly reading their audience, they are vox populi.

i think it must be highly unlikely that a long-term bottom has been put in around s&p 1270 if this sort of hopeful bottom-fishing is making the cover of a plebiscitarian paper like the chicago sun-times. we might bounce hard here for a month or three or even six -- but past that one has to be looking lower with sentiment like this afoot.

UPDATE: the british press seems to be holding up its end of the bargain much better. here's some extra historical perspective with respect to the new york times. and i'm not sure if it's good or bad that much professional opinion is probably darker than the broadsheet.


Great post. I enjoy your evidence and analysis. I can't say I was feeling pretty good this morning, but I can say I felt worse after reading the post. BUH-HAW!

Seriously, I enjoy your posts greatly, except for your (enviable) periods of nonactivity.

Best Regards,

Dark Cloud (Steve B), STL, MO

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thanks, steve -- much appreciated!

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