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Friday, March 14, 2008


where angels fear to tread

on the heels of the bear stearns implosion, i bought UYG (proshares ultra financials) @ 28.22. stop below 27.5.

the thesis in practice:

3. buy very aggressively on price retests of the intraday lows.


but bill at vix and more forwarded an idea, which's jason goepfert took a bit farther to show that a time like this, in recent history, is in fact where you want to get greedy -- the ratio of s&p hisotrical volatility to the ten-year treasury yield almost never gets so high, and when it does the forward returns looking out as far as twelve weeks are brilliant. implied volatility also exploded against its longer-dated sibling today, indicating short-term panic.


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