ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Wednesday, April 02, 2008

 

another 90% day


building on the two from mid-march, the market put in a third 90% upside day yesterday.

i continue to think of this as a bear market rally, though a potentially powerful one. the NDX here is retesting it february high, and yet the cumulative net advancers, points and volume of the group are all lagging from that point. i'll be looking for signs of momentum fading and breadth narrowing in coming weeks, as well as emphasizing the importance of 90% downside days. sentiment is also to be watched for optimism that might indicate a peak, including ISEE and volatility curve data.

the NDX is short-term overbought -- percentage of issues trading over their 10dma is 86% -- but i don't see much reason for concern just yet. it's generally a sign of strength if the market can power higher with light consolidation -- which is what it did over the last few days. if it can clear this level, there doesn't seem to be much in the way of resistance before 1990 or so.

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