ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Friday, May 09, 2008

 

futures pricing means nothing


too often, forward futures prices are taken to be some sort of crystal ball. that is, of course, ridiculous -- a proposition held only by market novices and ideologues. the future is not for us -- and you'll never see a better chart proving as much than the one seen today on ft alphaville.

at best, forward pricing reflects current sentiment. and not always even that. the next time you hear some talking head or fed governor talking about futures prices reflecting something meaningful about what is going to happen -- with inflation or otherwise -- feel free to disregard.

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Good post -- and welcome back!

 
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lol -- i didn't think my absence would be noticed! our second daughter arrived april 24, and obviously other priorities took hold. :)

 
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I agree with Bill.

Keep up the good work and thanks for returning!

 
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Congrats on the new addition!

Speaking of which, good news for parents: the last line in my post from this morning links to a Scientific American article about how it is possible to make up for sleep debt.

Cheers,

-Bill

 
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