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Thursday, May 29, 2008

 

might be time to double back on the bounce


it's been some five months since january 22/23, and a very good time to be long the market as it put in a double bottom from a march 17 retest. the NDX has moved from 1687 to 2019, a 20% move.

but the rally has stalled and participation is narrowing in the NDX. cumulative net points and volume are lagging on the upleg of this week from the same levels of ten days ago -- so is percent issues tading over moving averages (10, 30, 150 all). mcclellan oscillator has putting in lower peaks since may 1, and the index has seen (may 7 and 21) two 90% downside days. 65-day and 20-day new highs are lagging form may 2; new low expansion isn't pronounced in teh 65-day window, but is in the 20-day. cumulative 20d NH-NL is not looking healthy. volatility envelopes (sensitive and ordinary) have been in declining peaks since may 2.

i've already been short the financials (SKF) for some time, at a small profit.

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