ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Friday, July 18, 2008

 

closed oil short -- considering went long


trade the tape not the narrative. participation on the last leg down in DJUSEN gave an upside divergence -- issues over 10dma, 20d hi-lo, volatility envelopes, mcclellan all pointing to possible upside.

i'm experimenting with price targeting using point and figure charting. we'll see where this gets me, if anywhere...

the DJUSEN broke under resistance at 680 and is now at the 645-650 congestion level. a run back to 680 would not be surprising in light of bettering internals. that would push DIG from the current 90 level to about 99. failure might mean 615 or even 590.

also adding to QLD longs into this morning's weakness following the google miss with NDX @ 1820 with upside to 1860-1870. looks to be considerable headroom remaining in participation.

i'd further think SSO an add around s&p 1240 if it gets back there, with an upside target of 1280 or so.

IYF looks a good bet to 75, perhaps 79 from today's 70 -- meaning UYG to 24 or 27 from today's 20. the high-speed plummet here leaves lots of room for improvement, even though UYG is bouncing from 14 and already 40% off that level.

UPDATE: added DIG around 91.40.

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