ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Wednesday, July 16, 2008


how does it feel?

kevin depew on the blissful ignorance of popular culture as depression sets in. it is going as unacknowledged today as it did then -- but depew rightly notes that The Fear is accumulating like water behind an earthen dam which will later break.

as fascinating as one can find the boggling mechanics of this credit bust, the social dynamic is even more engrossing. watching as policymakers -- who, i am convinced, are deeply aware of their role in perpetrating the disaster, at least of refusing to take the steps that could have mitigated it -- flail against shortsellers is a mesmerizing statement of political desperation. watching the slow dawning of the extent of the troubles on blithe mainstream americans, heretofore completely ignorant of how exactly they got a mortgage, is fascinating. being able to look back at months and years of propagation from the cult of official optimism -- does anyone remember when this was all "contained"? -- and see it for the self-serving and dissembling fraud it was is fascinating. i sometimes feel as though i'm having an out-of-body experience that has lasted months -- a remote observer, maybe a voyeur of a system laid bare, rubbernecking at a terrible highway crash that i can't seem to drive past.

but that can't last, can it? after decades of moving toward a regrettable extreme of individuation, i imagine that we will soon rediscover just how much 'of a whole' we truly are. few and little will be left untouched. i'm sure my family will be no exception.


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