ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Monday, September 29, 2008

 

black monday: house fails to pass paulson plan


republicans voted against en masse, with about 2/3 voting against -- which of course helped to split the democratic vote, of which 1/3 voted against. dow down 600 and falling at this writing.

now we may see some real fear.

UPDATE: house leadership on both sides currently threatening members voting no to switch over before the vote closes -- it's got 207 and needs 218 to pass, and they're holding voting open past time. but which congressman would dare to be the deciding switchover that gets splahsed onto every editorial page in the world tomorrow?

UPDATE: the vote is closed. it will not pass. nasdaq 100 off (-8%); IYF off over (-10%); dow off 600 and has been as much as 700. bennet sedacca has a primer on what to expect.

UPDATE: macro man:

Clearly there are more voters on Main Street than Wall Street, and we all know that the first job of a Congressman in October is to make sure that he is a Congressman in January.

So the question now is....how low do equities have to go, and how many banks have to fail, before Main Street decides that bailing out Wall Street might not be such a bad idea, after all?

Barring a volte-face from the House, we may be about to find out....


UPDATE: barry ritholtz:

ITS A SHAME THERE ARE NO SHORTS WHO WOULD OTHERWISE BE COMING IN ABOUT NOW TO COVER. (HASN'T ANYONE AT THE SEC EVER WORKED ON A TRADING DESK?)


s&p now down (-8%) and still falling 30 minutes from the close. dow down 720 points and falling. todd harrison forecast an equity "dislocation" sometime in 2008; he was right. this is it.

UPDATE: the tally:

for the record, the dow finished off 777 points, or (-6.98%). at least that's as of now -- i imagine they're still clearing trades.

black monday, indeed.

one of the immortal headlines to come out of this, sure to pass into myth, is marketwatch's rex nutting -- house to wall street: drop dead.

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wow

 
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i am stunned, ccd.

some people will characterize this as a victory for the people, and it's certainly a deeply flawed plan. but as a victory it may seen quite pyrrhic in a few months' time.

 
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hi gm. quite a party, eh? feels kinda like the giants beat the patriots in the super bowl again! what an upset.

it remains to be seen, but i'll trust the markets to do the right thing over the government anyday, pal.

like my old man said: things gotta way of workin' out.

 
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i've no doubt the sun will keep rising and setting, dc! :) it'll work out. one way or another.

 
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