ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

 

disappointing rally


on the back of the rate cut, given the extremely oversold nature of the market, one cannot help but be disappointed by the subsequent rally.

up about 2% across the board, yes. but at this writing nearing the close, just 40% of issues are advancers -- that has to be in the running for the narrowest 2% rally in history. volume is equally unconvincing, which i make about 60% positive on the NYSE and 75% on the NASDAQ. this is no 90% day.

after a crash like we've seen, there's no doubt in my mind that any durable low will be severely tested and made to show that it will hold -- meaning that buying the first bounce is unnecessary and quite possibly very risky.

but the odds for success on such a retest would be markedly better if the first bounce was accompanied by an obvious and strong influx of buyers driving up demand from low prices. this is not that, at least not yet.

which leads me to the dour and mildly disbelieving conclusion that today, while a relief, has not been the start of much of importance and that the trend down remains in force. hopefully i'll be shown to be wrong.

UPDATE: of course the market reversed and finished down across the board. sigh...

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