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Thursday, October 09, 2008

 

international shipping fading out


via yves smith -- no credit, no trade. who needs smoot-hawley?

UPDATE: more from paul kedrosky. yves updates with this financial post article.

"There's all kinds of stuff stacked up on docks right now that can't be shipped because people can't get letters of credit," said Bill Gary, president of Commodity Information Systems in Oklahoma City. "The problem is not demand, and it's not supply because we have plenty of supply. It's finding anyone who can come up with the credit to buy."

So far the problem is mostly being felt in U. S. and South American ports, but observers say it is only a matter of time before it hits Canada.

"We've got a nightmare in front of us and a lot of people are concerned it's going to get a lot worse," said Anthony Temple, a grain marketing expert based in Vancouver....

Access to credit is key to the survival of maritime trade and insiders now say the supply is being severely restricted. More than 90% of the world's trade by volume goes by ship...


shipping has crashed. welcome to depression. this is what it looks like at the outset.

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thanks for the laugh, gm.

on a reality note - we're here, bro. we're at the crossroads. i say, too, at least another 15% off the markets by monday close.
which will either be the floor - or there will be an even worse floor. ("dow 3600" was supposed to be a joke.)

like the hungover sailors after a night at the whorehouse: "shit, willie - this ain't love".

 
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they're trying to rally 'em, dc -- the dow faded (-1400) points near the open and it's back to (-900). ... now (-200)... must have been a huge pile of "get me out" orders piled up from overnight.

any wagers on PPT?

 
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on which side?

the rally, or "get me out"?

 
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"get me out" i suspect -- the only way market makers can field sufficient bids under those opening conditions is to lower the boom on prices, which they did. when that wave of overnight sell orders clears, then you can rally.

hopefully that was The Bottom -- but watch the last hour. margin calls go out after 2 sometime, i can't remember (thankfully) when.

 
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