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Thursday, October 09, 2008


morgan stanley credit rating under review

no link -- just caught this on bloomberg, re: their long-term debt. the stock is down (-70%) is the last month, (-26%) today. felix salmon calls it the end, sometime before monday's open.

the nikkei is down (-11%) in the morning session atop the (-9%) fall yesterday. s&p futures are off (3.5%). the panic of 2008 continues, seems even to be accelerating into a ghastly climax. here's nouriel roubini in an email:

At this point the risk of an imminent stock market crash – like the one-day collapse of 20% plus in U.S. stock prices in 1987 – cannot be ruled out as the financial system is breaking down, panic and lack of confidence in any counterparty is sharply rising and the investors have totally lost faith in the ability of policy authorities to control this meltdown.

When in markets that are clearly way oversold, even the most radical policy actions don’t provide rallies or relief to market participants. You know that you are one step away from a market crash and a systemic financial sector and corporate sector collapse. A vicious circle of deleveraging, asset collapses, margin calls, and cascading falls in asset prices well below falling fundamentals, and panic is now underway.

At this point severe damage is done and one cannot rule out a systemic collapse and a global depression. It will take a significant change in leadership of economic policy and very radical, coordinated policy actions among all advanced and emerging market economies to avoid this economic and financial disaster.

god help us.

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