ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Thursday, November 20, 2008

 

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save us godwhat kind of comment is one supposed to offer in response to this?

courtesy of calculated risk with an ad hoc update to reflect today's further (-6.7%) decline.

the crash hit 747.78 in the s&p -- forcing an 11-year closing low at 752.44. this was my price target from october 3 based on jeff cooper's fractal comparison. the worst should be over, but even with the s&p now down (-50.9%) (-51.9%) from its high of 1523.57 and kevin depew on board it's hard to want to step in.

it is, as noted by cr, now the most severe market crash since the great depression.

UPDATE: traders narrative links to a presentation by the lowry report (my "newsletter", which has paid for itself many times over) regarding the onging bear, including a chart-laden .pdf illustrating their supply and demand measures. the prognosis: put bluntly, no end yet in sight, indeed an intensification of deleveraging.

  • during highly volatile days Oct 15, 16, 21, 22 and Nov 5, 6, selling pressure continued to rise
  • buyers not using trading range or volatility to step up and accumulate shares while sellers remain active
  • Nov 19th 2008 took buying power -10 to 127 and selling pressure +12 to 906, an all time high
  • very rare to see market bottom when selling pressure is at all time high


hopefully, with prices now at new lows, demand will materialize -- from where i'm not sure, but hopefully. if not, we will go lower.

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The scary thing is, I don't think we've seen true capitulation yet.

I had a sense there would not be a bounce today because everyone was waiting for the rally.

If it fails to come tomorrow, we may see a huge sell off the next two days (Friday and Monday).

And does anyone really want to hold over a holiday weekend next week?

My biggest regret is selling SRS at $158 last Thursday. Oh well.

 
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yah, to think i actually cleared off my shorts last week and went long for, oh, about 20 minutes before hitting my stops. but at least there were stops.

now, however, the market is again so oversold that it could scream higher on the least provocation -- clearly not an ideal short entry position, so i sit in cash. which is not bad.

 
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make it stop gm, make it stop

 
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