ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Thursday, November 13, 2008


testing the lows

yesterday's smashup became the third 90% down day in seven sessions as noted by the lowry report, which also drove their metrics of supply and demand to new highs and lows respectively and indicating the probable failure of the october 10 and 24 lows.

for the record, the intraday lows in the indeces:

nasdaq 100 -- october 24 -- 1146.95 -- breached -- smashed

nasdaq composite -- october 24 -- 1493.00 -- breached -- smashed

s&p 500 -- october 10 -- 839.80 -- breached -- smashed

dow 30 industrials -- october 10 -- 7773.71

we are trading lower this morning on appalling guidance from chipmakers INTC and AMAT, who see revenues down more than 10% month-over-month -- confirming that the real economy has followed the financial community and gone over the cliff. retail giant best buy yesterday called it their worst environment ever. even wal-mart guided revenue lower this morning. weekly jobless claims jumped up to 516,000, well over expectations.

for what it's worth -- i'm seeing improving (though hardly healthy) participation on the successive tests of these levels, as measured by 20-day lows and volatility envelopes. but cumulative volume, points and issues have all been anemic and leading the market lower -- it doesn't look very robust on the whole. if the market does not stand on these levels, support might be found in the 780-800 area beneath the s&p.

UPDATE: after smashing the lows by a couple of percent, the market has reversed hard and is extending to new day highs. was enough to force QID to its channel bottom, which stopped me out less than an hour after hitting the channel high! amazing.

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