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Sunday, December 14, 2008


negative chinese GDP change

per calculated risk, this is the first such forecast i have seen but this is certainly a confirmation of vitaliy katsenelson.

UPDATE: yves smith on new data from chinese electrical production -- down (-9.6%) in november YoY. the clear implication is that even dubious and inflated official chinese statistics soon won't be able to hide the depth of china's economic collapse.

UPDATE: michael pettis:

I can’t prove it, of course, but I think Chinese inflation is a money-based phenomenon and I am guessing that if China is experiencing deflation it is also experiencing rapid contraction in outstanding credit – much more rapid than we think. In China like in most developing countries, as I have written many times before, the structure of balance sheets tends to reinforce trends, which increases underlying volatility. We may have suddenly swung from ferocious credit expansion to ferocious credit contraction. The fear of deflation next year, in that case, is well founded.

terrible news for those hoping that surplus nation demand might be stimulated to absorb capacity that had once gone to the west.

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