ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Friday, December 05, 2008

 

taleb: worse than anyone thinks and it will happen fast


again via paul kedrosky, nassim taleb on charlie rose.

this follows on an earlier interview which included benoit mandelbrot.

key takeaways: the precedent of 1929-1933 may be deceiving because of the speed of information and the tightness of coupling in a globalized, datalinked world -- what needs to happen is more, as debt levels incurred under the delusion of efficient-market-hypothesis-derived value-at-risk modeling are much larger than they ever were in the 1920s or indeed any previous event, but it may happen much faster.

taleb is talking about an accelerated deflationary depression -- systemic collpase, really -- of unimaginable ferocity.

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