Wednesday, January 07, 2009
with global trade collapsing and beggar-thy-neighbor in full effect, i would expect in defiance of consensus some upcoming monthly job reports with losses in excess of (-1,000,000).
UPDATE: so does ING.
Through the latter half of 2008, ING’s model was predicting some pretty pessimistic numbers: -200k; -250k. Official figures invariably came in below those numbers, at around -50k. By the end of 2008 though, the deviation between ING’s predicted numbers and those reported, began to narrow.
Now though, the deviation is huge ... Which means…… the scale of the current deviation of our calculated figures from published payrolls is so large (around -930k for November, compared with the -533k official release) that we suspect convergence will come sooner rather than later .
UPDATE: interesting charts from the council on foreign relations, brad setser's outfit. it's clear by looking at real GDP growth, unemployment, industrial production and other lagging indicators how some would perceive what we are experiencing as a "normal" recession. but it is in observing current indicators like non-farm payrolls and leaders like ISM manufacturing and consumer sentiment -- and the off-the-charts behavior of bond spreads -- that the case for something more than a normal recession is most easily made.