ES -- DX/CL -- isee -- cboe put/call -- specialist/public short ratio -- trinq -- trin -- aaii bull ratio -- abx -- cmbx -- cdx -- vxo p&f -- SPX volatility curve -- VIX:VXO skew -- commodity screen -- cot -- conference board

Monday, February 16, 2009


feedback loop

last we left eastern europe, the rumblings of an emerging market crisis of the sort last seen emanating from the thai baht in 1998 were growing loud. now we return to find systemic collapse imminent. zero hedge, the telegraph and the financial times all report.

in some respects a comparison to 1998 isn't valid, as western banks were nowhere near as systemically compromised by the collapse of east asia as they are about to be by the former soviet bloc states along the eastern border of the eurozone. as befits the truly global nature of this crisis, a chain reaction feeding from states like ukraine through austria and italy to the heart of western capitalism looms.

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Here we go again.

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this might indeed be leg two, dm. my read of equity market technicals is acutally superficially sanguine. but i won't be surprised if this in the end constitutes the beginning of the end of europe -- meaning the banking, the currency, the political union. that isn't an event chain that markets will lightly suffer.

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