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Monday, March 09, 2009

 

mexico as a security challenge


via the oil drum comes the analysis of jeff vail.

Of course, readers are probably already aware that a root cause of the problems in Mexico is the precipitous decline of Mexican oil production and an even faster decline in the level of oil exports. Add to that declining remittance incomes being sent home by migrant workers in America, declining tourist revenues, and lower revenue per barrel of oil exported, and the Mexican state is experiencing a severe financial crunch.

While the fiscal stability of the Mexican state is impacted by continually declining oil production and oil exports that are declining even faster, this impact is mitigated to some extent because PEMEX hedged the majority of its oil production through 2009 at roughly $70/barrel. Depending on the price of oil in 2010, Mexican oil revenues stand to drop off a cliff as PEMEX loses hedge coverage.


could the united states be compelled to redeploy forces home from iraq and afghanistan to the mexican border later this year as mexico degenerates into a failed state?

more from ft alphaville on the deteriorating economics of mexico.

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