Monday, April 27, 2009
bear market rally volume
Whether it was William Peter Hamilton observing the trading activity of the 19th century, or Richard Russell who has studied the market's real-time price and volume action for more than 50 years, or Russell Napier who took the time for an in-depth review of the 4 greatest buying opportunities in the 20th century, each came to a similar conclusion: to confirm a change in market conditons, watch trading volume closely. By this measure, the market's recent rally still has much to prove.
the charts are a fairly devastating indictment of the now-eight-week-old surge. some of it overlaps the implications of the lowry analysis.
i'm still hanging on short on the merit of my own technical analysis, which has been showing increasing downside risk even as price moves higher.