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Wednesday, May 06, 2009


trimtabs on unemployment

via zero hedge.

TrimTabs Investment Research estimated today that the U.S. economy shed 745,000 jobs in April (20,000 more than their March job loss estimates) as wages and salaries plunged an adjusted 5.7% year-over-year. TrimTabs estimated that the economy shed a record 5 million jobs in the past 12 months.

"If job losses continue at the present rate, the unemployment rate could top 10% by summer," said TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman.

In a research note, TrimTabs reported that income tax refunds are up 16.5% year-over-year this year, providing a short-term boost to consumption. Unfortunately for the economy, however, the support from refunds is winding down. ...

Finally, TrimTabs reported that real-time income tax data indicates that the personal savings rate was 1.6% in March, well below the 4.2% estimated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

the inital BEA figure is a shot in the dark, so this provides some better clarity on savings. the unemployment analysis is based on the data that also provided the basis of some of jim welsh's outlook.

calculated risk also looked at the ADP report on unemployment out today, which was more optimistic but also tends to be fairly heavily revised.

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