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Tuesday, June 30, 2009


case-shiller double dip?

so thinks ivy zelman, per the WSJ.

Prices at the mid-to-high end are falling as job loss and the worsening economy have iced demand for higher-priced “move-up” homes. Also, tougher financing conditions have made it harder to get mortgages for “jumbo” loans on more expensive homes, and delinquencies are rising among jumbo borrowers, which could lead to an even greater oversupply of homes.

Independent housing analyst Ivy Zelman notes that such a “double dip” in the index in the second half of 2009 could materialize because the Case-Shiller index is value-weighted, which means that repeat sales of higher priced homes figure have an outsized impact. ...

Mid-to-high end home price declines could generate some mixed signals over the coming months. If prices fall low enough to attract new buyers, that could generate more sales of higher-priced homes that lead to increases in median prices. But those median price gains won’t necessarily mean that housing is out of the woods.

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