Friday, June 05, 2009
consumer borrowing and may jobs
Borrowing by consumers fell by $15.7 billion in April as U.S. households continued to trim spending and put away their credit cards amid a severe recession.
The Federal Reserve says the April decline was the second largest ever in dollar terms following March's drop of $16.6 billion. March's decline originally was reported as $11.1 billion, which had been the most on records dating to 1943.
The April decline is more than double the $6 billion drop that economists had expected.
all part of the g.19 release. per calculated risk, this is an annualized rate of (-7.4%).
ed harrison also dissects further a headline-positive may jobs report. no doubt the (-345,000) figure was a positive surprise, complete with positive prior month revisions -- just as consumer borrowing was its opposite on both counts. if the latter is any indication, the "recovery" hinted at by the former may be unrecognizable as such.
CR also revisits an old favorite, EMRATIO, which was as usual an excellent onset tell of recession. it won't turn up, however, until after the recession is over.