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Monday, June 22, 2009

 

news from 1930


via paul kedrosky -- fascinating. from this past week in the wall street journal 79 years ago:

“This is America. Piffling talkers would turn back the calendar to the nineties and destroy the economic progress of thirty years. Vicious rumors spread for selfish purposes; flippant predictions of a five-year slump in business; wholesale demands for the cutting of wages are unworthy of American intelligence. Credit is super-abundant. Business is no worse than three months ago. Twelve months of declining volume is behind us. Many adjustments have been all but completed. Engineering and marketing brains are as fertile as ever. Problems there have always been. To proclaim their insurmountability is childish.”

AFL President William Green meets with President Hoover, says he believes the employment situation is beginning to improve.

Record low 2 1/2% New York Fed rediscount rate indicates to businesses that very easy credit is here to stay for a while. Reserve expected to be cautious about raising rates until it's clear business upturn is here to stay. Rates have been lowered from 6% last August.

“Stocks down, money down, wheat down, rubber down, copper down, silver down, silk down, gasoline down, steel prices down” - but don't forget, “what goes down must come up.”

Economists feel the current situation in commodity markets is starting to look like a bottom; a combination of underproduction and easy credit at low rates should work as usual to correct conditions.

Industrial and financial sectors of the US economy are set up for high levels of production and consumption; the current depression puts buyers in control and they are holding off for lower prices. When consumers start spending again this will be reflected early in stock prices.

“A Turn of the Tide Near” ... “It cannot be imagined that the wholesale failures and interest defaults characteristic of earlier depressions will now be repeated. Confidence in our banking system wholly precludes the money panics of former eras.”

Head of a sizable New York investment trust says the current conditions of very easy credit and poor business have always been a buying opportunity in the past. Absolutely confident that any list of good stocks will have good gains by end of 1931 and probably show a profit by end of 1930. Cautions that current market technicals don't look that good and further declines may occur first.

Market students have been encouraged by the general gloom for the past two weeks. This contrasts with the “new era” thinking of last summer when no end was seen to the rise in stock prices and margin debt was hitting a record every week. History says the current gloom is just as mistaken as last summer's unjustified optimism. Historically there has been no case in this country since 1900 when business failed to turn upward the year following a depression.

dear god -- lock, stock and barrel, it could have been taken from yesterday's journal. and the further you read, the more apparent that is.

the symmetry is astounding -- testament to just what a terrific extent 'news' is not actually much to do with the reporting of reality and rather is instead the perpetuation of necessary human mythologies. dumbfounding. shocking. deeply frightening.


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