Wednesday, July 01, 2009
caution warranted on the second derivative
some early june data is pushing a few other examples forward. calculated risk notes GM car sales:
From MarketWatch: General Motors U.S. June sales decline 33.6%
This is worse the the 29% drop in May.
and clusterstock observes unexpected backsliding in the restaurant survey.
some of this goes hand-in-hand with pragmatic capitalist's observations on weekly retail data as it accumulated throughout june. to be sure, the news on second derivatives isn't all bad. but there isn't much in the way of a real economic recovery to talk about here.
UPDATE: ed harrison dissects the june ISM manufacturing report and finds troubling signs of a nascent re-intensification of the decline in new orders.