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Friday, July 17, 2009


whalen on banking

via big picture -- chris whalen on CNBC. read the notes, probably whalen's own, on the crawler as well:

  • 2q09 likely to contain more earnings spin and accounting gimmicks than q1
  • banking sector is not out the woods, total restructuring needed
  • for larger firms, we expect to see continued positive operating results
  • despite strong operating results, all major banks will have rising credit losses
  • cash flow from assets is falling
  • its hard for banks to survive without debt to equity swaps
  • citi can be restructured short of bankruptcy but we need real leadership
  • "pretend and extend" was good policy for the fist half of this year
  • CIT bankruptcy will surprise people by how disruptive will be
  • CIT should not be bailed out the company needs to be restructured
  • jp morgans honeymoon is coming under a lot of stress
  • goldman sachs is paranoid and nimble a winning combination

great color on marshall and ilsley as well after 4 minutes. whalen recommends waiting on banks like M&I in spite of their slowing loss reserve build -- it might pick up again soon.

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