Friday, September 11, 2009
when will unemployment improve?
... I believe that the economy will start to add jobs when the initial jobless claims rate drops past 550,000, and stays significantly under that number (about 530,000 or less) for three months, or else quickly drops under 500,000.
But of course, that begs the next question, which is, how can we tell if jobless claims are moving in that direction or not? There are several other data sets that help pinpoint this, and that's what I'll explore next week.
contributor new deal democrat also points to the moderation in inventory-to-sales as evidence that manufacturing might be priming for expansion. the three contributors are split on the viability of a consumer-led recovery.